The supporting categories for this year’s Oscars bring quite a diverse group, and five of the ten are first-time nominees. Let’s begin with the ladies.

Janet McTeer is one of the very best things in the somewhat sloppy ALBERT NOBBS, and her nomination here is well deserved. She’s getting what I like to call “the prestige slot”, the one usually taken by a Brit actor in a prestige picture. She has almost no chance of winning, but anyone who has seen the film can tell you she is unforgettable in it.

Berenice Bejo is another woman turning in a top-tier performance in a tough category. Her zeal and joie de vivre are a big part of what makes THE ARTIST so damned charming, and her ability to hold her own against Jean Dujardins cannot be understated. Hopefully, her nomination means that North American audiences haven’t seen the last of her.

Jessica Chastain is being awarded not just for her unforgettable turn in THE HELP, but for her year on the whole. She has had as great a breakout as any young actress could hope for, chalking up four stellar performances in the final seven months of 2011. She’s been nominated for THE HELP – a film that will likely be well-honoured Sunday night, but Chastain won’t be a part of that. The good news though, is that this likely isn’t her last nomination.

It’s hard for me to pin down why, but my spoiler for the night has to be Melissa McCarthy. She’s got a story that so many people love, and had quite a breakout year herself. Watching her win an Emmy already this year made me feel like I was watching a dress-rehearsal, and a win here would be a way to reward an underdog film that went on to become one of the year’s biggest. It’s a longshot, but so was Marisa Tomei.

However, McCarthy playing spoiler would upset a very heavy favorite in the guise of Octavia Spencer. There hasn’t been a precursory award that she hasn’t taken, and she has remained gracious through it all. She’s an actress who has been around for a while (check IMDb), and THE HELP was clearly her moment in the sun. In a cast stacked with talented actresses, she stood apart…and a moment like this isn’t likely to come around often. The award will be well-deserved, and hopefully just be the start of even better things.

Ryan’s Pick… Octavia Spencer runs the table.

The supporting men aren’t nearly as diverse, and are largely a familiar list of names.

Jonah Hill is the odd duck in this duck pond. While I wasn’t a fan of what he brought to MONEYBALL, I can see that he is being rewarded for finally finding another character to play besides “Jonah Hill”. The question is what he’ll do with this goodwill. Even money says he squanders it.

Nick Nolte turns in some great acting. His recent career has him often playing a pseudo-Tom Waits type, and much of WARRIOR plays to that. However, the script can’t resist giving him a showy scene of ranting and raving, and it undermines everything else Nolte has done until then. Sorry Nick – you deserved better.

I know people who fully loathe Kenneth Branagh’s performance in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, many of whom call it “hammy”. If that’s the case then he’s in good company with Nolte. The curious thing is that in many ways Branagh has been trying to emulate Sir Laurence Olivier his whole career. Rewarding him for an impersonation feels like enabling.

For a film that is as generally loathed as EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE, there is a small groundswell for Max Von Sydow’s work within it. If there were enough Academy voters who could rally behind the film (even though that likely came through funky balloting which isn’t in play here), it’s conceivable that same cluster of voters could rally behind Von Sydow’s performance. Oscar does love to honour the old guard in this category, and this could be a chance to reward one of the greats…and not the great everyone is presuming.

The winner everyone is presuming is, of course, Christopher Plummer for his part in BEGINNERS. Like Von Sydow, it gives voters a chance to honour the old-guard. In this cae, the member of the old-guard has picked up just his second nomination. Hey Academy, here’s a thought: Why not honour your artists properly when they are in their prime instead of playing catch-up later and giving them pseudo-Lifetime Achievement awards? That’s not to say that Plummer isn’t deserving: far from it. His work in BEGINNERS is both gentle and complicated, and is truly wonderful…and that’s not just the hometown bias speaking.

Ryan’s Pick… I hope Plummer has practised his speech.

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Supporting races.

2 Replies to “Diffrent People (Oscar Predictions – Best Supporting Actress & Supporting Actor)

  1. Spencer and Plummer will both be rewarded on Sunday evening. However, like you said, Plummer should have taken that Oscar years ago for his wonderful turn in The Insider.

  2. He didn’t even get nominated for that – though lord knows he should have been. Then again, that year I think the loot should have gone to Tom Cruise for MAGNOLIA.

Comments are closed.