Over the past month, I’ve been doing something I wish more Oscar voters did – watching films nominated for the awards. It’s a sad reality that most voters don’t see all or even most of the nominated films and performances, which really is a shame as I really think it would lead them to some better decision-making where their votes are concerned.

As for me, I like to watch them all as a way to circle back on some of the great films from the year that I might have missed…and to form an informed opinion about what was nominated. Speaking of said opinion, today marks the beginning of my final Oscar thoughts, tackling two major categories a day until Oscar arrives this weekend. Today we begin with screenplay.

Original screenplay is wickedly tough to call this year, and brings together five diverse stories.

J.C. Chandor’s script for MARGIN CALL is sharp and timely, and a huge achievement for a first feature. It brought together some of the best actors working and spoke about a heady subject that affects us all – Wall Street’s collapse – in a way that weaves together the technical and the layman’s terms. It’s been a long road since Sundance, and the film has a lot to be proud of.

A SEPARATION landing a nomination is remarkable, and puts it in a class with some of the very best foreign scripts like TALK TO HER and CITY OF GOD. The screenplay is one of the best things the film has going for it, but I fear it is sadly overmatched in this field.

BRIDESMAIDS is also a first-feature nomination for Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo. If life was fair, Judd Apatow would be nominated here as well since his mentorship guided the ladies to sharpening the script into what it became.The nomination is a good sign: Proof that Oscar can recognize intelligent comedy wrapped in no-holds-barred lunacy. There’s an outside chance the film could take the prize, but it’s not likely.

While Sunday is shaping up to be THE ARTIST’s night, screenplay is the one category where it’s in really tough. Along with those three worthy nominees nipping at its heels, it also has a heavy favorite ahead of it that it needs to pass. Opposite to what you might hear, there is quite a bit of craft to this screenplay, since it does tell a very detailed story…it just isn’t leaning on dialogue to do it. If the ball gets rolling, this award could go to THE ARTIST, but with other categories to honour Michel Hazanavicius, look for this award to go elsewhere.

Namely, watch for Woody Allen. The Academy loves Woody Allen, especially when he is firing on all cylinders. The man has been nominated 15 times as a screenwriter, and already has a pair of screenwriting statues to his name. MIDNIGHT IN PARIS galvanized audiences like no Woody Allen film in a generation, and this is the category where they the academy can reward the best thing about it.

Ryan’s Pick… Woody Allen wins Oscar number three – and is not present at the ceremony to collect his prize.

Adapted screenplay is the lower-key of George Clooney’s two nominations on the night. He is up for this prize for his work on IDES OF MARCH with Grant Heslov & Beau Willimon. The script is well-crafted, if sometimes cliché, but the film as a whole failed to catch voters’ imagination. A win here would be unexpected to say the least.

There’s a lot to like about HUGO’s script, especially in the way it captures the innocence and joy of its source. Like THE ARTIST, a lot of its script is about showing us instead of telling us, and it does so with gusto. In a weaker year it could stand a chance. However, of all the categories HUGO could take, this isn’t one of them.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY is a screenplay that adapts from its source material very well. It takes a very dense book – a low boiling dense book at that – and mines it for its very best elements. It gives shape to the complicated narrative, and isn’t afraid to let subtlety and nuance out to play. Ultimately, the film might have been too low-key for the voters at large.

MONEYBALL would be a cinch in this category were it not for recent history. The script for this film springboards from a nonfiction book about baseball statistics. Starting from something as seemingly dull as that and turning it into dialogue that delivers with such snap is remarkable. So remarkable that many people who don’t care a lick about baseball were drawn deeply into this film. The recent history working against it? Aaron Sorkin won this category just last year, and Oscar isn’t the sort of group that enjoys reruns.

Which leaves THE DESCENDANTS. Once considered a heavy Oscar favorite, the film has fallen back as award season has carried on, and now this feels like its best shot for a trophy. Like MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, the screenplay category gives voters a chance to honour a film’s director, even if they don’t award him Best Director. While the nomination officially lists three co-writers for the nomination, it’s really voters’ chance to say a well deserved “Aloha” to Alexander Payne.

Ryan’s Pick… THE DESCENDANTS hits one up the middle, taking the game from MONEYBALL.

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Screenplay races.

6 Replies to “The Simple Story (Oscar Predictions – Best Adapted & Original Screenplay)

  1. Allen should show up this year. There’s a good chance he wins.

    And lets be honest … while I pains me to say it, his time here is slipping and this may be he last *real* chance to claim a victory.

    1. Thanks for the comment good sir.

      Allen doesn’t skip the ceremony because he figures he’s losing, he skips it because he doesn’t believe in them. If he hasn’t shown up for his previous 22 nominations, I doubt 23 will change his mind – even as the odds-on favorite.

      And he’s cranked out a handful of great scripts in the last ten years. I don’t think the man is done yet.

  2. I agree with those choices too. Everyone wants to give something to Woody when he makes a good movie. Though I do think A Separation is the dark horse here. We will see if they will give a screenplay award for a foreign film, but I think it’s the best script of the bunch.

    1. Welcome to The Matinee Perrer!

      A foreign film has won screenplay before – one of my favorites too! In 2002 best original screenplay was given to TALK TO HER, which through the oddity of the foreign selection committee didn’t make the cut for Foreign Film that year.

      So there’s hope.

      As much as I loved MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, I’d love to see A SEPARATION take this…especially since I’m quietly hoping Canada can steal best foreign film.

  3. Excellent write-up on the films’ screenplays, Ryan. I see both categories as tough, although my predictions are Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris for Original, and Alexander Payne for The Descendants for Adapted.

    Oh, and I believe Woody did show up to the Academy Awards once–in 2002.

    1. He did, but not as a nominee.

      That year he showed up as a presenter to introduce a montage dedicated to New York City since it was just six months or so after 9/11. He did it under the specific condition that his appearance be kept hush-hush (only half a dozen people knew until the moment he walked out – to a standing ovation).

      The moment he was done his little speech, he walked offstage and kept walking right out the door.

      Crazy guy, that Woody.

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