Waiting On a Friend

Good Thursday morning folks! Time for me to jot down some thoughts on another two categories, which today will be Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress.

This is a rare year where all ten performers are truly deserving, and in at least one of these two categories, the outcome isn’t the slam-dunk everybody thinks.

Lets begin Supporting Actress by mentioning Taraji P Henson. I wonder if she’ll enjoy this Oscar night more than the last time she went, where she performed “It’s Hard Out Here For a Pimp” with Three Six Mafia. Her chances of winning are slim, so I hope not having to get up and sing this time is reward enough.

Marissa Tomei should also have a relaxing night, as she too is a bit of a long shot – though it’s nice to have her nominated again seventeen years after winning for MY COUSIN VINNY.

DOUBT scored a pair of nominees with Amy Adams and Viola Davis both getting nominated in this category. Logic would dictate that the two women end up splitting the vote, and neither one of them takes the award…but if one of them will pull ahead, my guess is that it’ll be Davis. Her performance in the film is brief, but she makes every single word of it matter and holds her own against Meryl Streep the entire way (no small feat).

That leaves Penelope Cruz who may well walk away with the prize. The plot of VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA takes a wicked turn after she shows up, and that’s the sort of part that will stay with you. Two other factors in her favour is the fact that the part is primarily in Spanish (which seems to suit her acting chops better historically), and that it’s a Woody Allen film (supporting actresses from his film usually do well).

The Hatter’s Pick… Cruz should be golden, though Davis could upset.

Then there’s Supporting Actor, where every performance is award-worthy. However, this category has long been seen as the Heath Ledger moment. Here’s the thing though – it’s not a lock.

For starters, The Academy didn’t love THE DARK KNIGHT the way most other film making groups did. No nods for picture, director, or screenplay show that this body of voters wasn’t as ga-ga about the film as the rest of the world…so Ledger’s chances in it could suffer accordingly.

Second is the fact that a posthumous Oscar is an amazingly rare bird. Only six performers have even scored a nomination, and of those only one has ever turned the nomination into a win (Peter Finch in 1976). The Academy is a sentimental bunch, but when it comes to rewarding a players final part, they turn stone cold in a hurry.

So if not Heath, then who? For my money – Josh Brolin. His understated performance in MILK won wide acclaim, and awarding him could be yet another way to reward MILK as an “Anti-Proposition 8” statement.

The Hatter’s Pick… You heard it here first, Josh Brolin to win. Though let it be clear, I want Ledger to take it.