We’re less than one week away from Hollywood’s big night. As you might have noticed, I’ve spent much of the last few weeks watching films nominated in the top eight categories. So now that I’ve soaked up all of these nominated screenplays, performances, direction and pictures…it’s time to put my money where my mouth is.

Let’s start today with the writing. My thoughts on adapted and original screenplay after the jump.

Adapted Screenplay is an interesting category, as it is such a strong group of contenders but such an open-and-shut slot.

WINTERS BONE has achieved so much since its debut back at Sundance, and Debra Granik’s nomination in this category can mean nothing but good things for her future as a filmmaker and screenwriter. But WINTER’S BONE is not THE SOCIAL NETWORK.

127 HOURS is a case of mining a source material to sculpt the very best film possible. I actually read Aron Ralston’s memoir this winter. While it’s a decent read, I can tell you that it isn’t nearly as captivating as the treatment that Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy conjured from this life-or-death tale. Their achievement is admirable, but 127 HOURS is not THE SOCIAL NETWORK.

TOY STORY 3 is being honoured here not only as a nod to the whole trilogy (note: Part 1 was also nominated for Best Screenplay), but also for how it wonderfully closes off the whole series. Closing it off well wasn’t a certainty – Google Disney’s original concept for the film. The Pixar Dream Team really achieved something special in this conclusion to the TOY STORY trilogy, but TOY STORY 3 is not THE SOCIAL NETWORK.

TRUE GRIT’s nomination could be seen on the surface as Oscar’s love-in with The Coen Brothers continuing full tilt. But before we chalk it up to lazy nominating, we should consider the dark humour that the western is infused with, and likewise the tonal deviation from the original classic. But TRUE GRIT is not…well, you get the idea.

Yes, Aaron Sorkin’s script for THE SOCIAL NETWORK is that much of a lock. Oddly, it’s the only lock for this film that started the awards season as the front-runner to best. Credit has to be given not only for the rat-a-tat rhythm of the dialogue, but likewise for how it took “The Facebook Story” and infused it with so much human drama. How this film ages remains to be seen, but as of now there’s no denying that it wouldn’t have achieved everything is has without that stellar screenplay.

Ryan’s Pick… Bet the farm on THE SOCIAL NETWORK, bitch.

For starters in the original screenplay category, there’s THE FIGHTER – which actually perplexes me with its inclusion in this category. There were a lot of things about THE FIGHTER I liked, but its simplistic script wasn’t one of them and likely won’t win over any voters either. Thanks for showing up!

Two years ago I noted that Mike Leigh is the sort of talent Oscar tends to nominate every time out, and ANOTHER YEAR did nothing to dissuade me from that stance. That’s not to say that the nomination is undeserving (it’s a fabulous script actually), but Leigh is a darkhorse in this crowd.

A script that is definitely in play is Lisa Cholodenko’s script for THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, which she co-wrote with Stuart Blumberg. In the past, Oscar has used this category to reward the smaller stories (JUNO, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE) and the timely stories (MILK, THELMA & LOUISE). Giving the gold to KIDS could kill two birds with one stone and reward this indie gem. It’s a screenplay that is certainly in the mix.

THE KING’S SPEECH is definitely riding a wave of support heading into Oscar night, and the wave could easily send it right into a win in this category. While its script isn’t nearly as witty or original as some of its co-nominees, it’s still a very good story…one that provides the framework for this front-running film. Should SPEECH get on to a bit of a roll Sunday night, this award could be its for the taking.

But then there’s Christopher Nolan. Despite being elbowed out of the running for Best Director, Nolan is up for two awards and this very well could be the place that Oscar recognizes his achievement. Lest we forget that one of the best things that INCEPTION had going for it, was the fact that many were hailing it as an intelligent blockbuster…one that proved people would come out in droves to see an action film with brains. Might Oscar remember that little stunt? Or is the nomination all the film gets to savour before the kick??

The Hatter’s Pick… Barring a KING’S SPEECH freight train, INCEPTION gets its totem.

Whaddaya think folks? Leave comments with your own thoughts on possibilities and predictions of the Best Screenplay races.