It’s been an interesting week in the awards race. Some films that seemed pretty darned strong just one short week ago have dropped back into the pack, and others that seemed to have been overlooked have gained momentum.

Yesterday, the final precursor for the Oscar nominees was announced when the Directors Guild of America named their honour roll for 2011. Four out of the five names were unsurprising, but one of them came somewhat out of left field. The three known values were Alexander Payne (THE DESCENDANTS), Michael Hazanavicius (THE ARTIST), Woody Allen (MIDNIGHT IN PARIS). Unsurprising, but momentum-building was Martin Scorsese for HUGO. The real surprise came with the fifth nominee – David Fincher for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO.

That’s not to say that anyone thought that Finch had done a less-than-stellar job, just that it seemed as though the man was poised to fly under the awards-season-radar after back-to-back dingers.

Combine that with the Writers Guild Nominees (full list below), and we have officially passed the last signpost before Oscar Nomination morning. Here’s where we stand…

THE DESCENDANTS, THE ARTIST, and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS are all but assured to be nominated for Best Picture on the 24th. Right behind them is HUGO. Not cemented, but in very good position is THE HELP (which doesn’t seem to be bothering anybody). Finally, making the hardest charge late in the campaign is THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO which now seems poised to join the other titles to form a top six.

After that, things become dicey. Depending on how many BP nominees make the grade, MONEYBALL could join those titles already mentioned. So too could WAR HORSE, but Spielberg’s equine epic has been dealt several setbacks on the campaign trail and now needs a lot of help.

All but dead: DRIVE, THE IDES OF MARCH, J. EDGAR, and TREE OF LIFE.

Looking at the actors, here are a few to count on…

Best Actress: Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams, Viola Davis

Best Actor: George Clooney (DESCENDANTS), Jean Dujardin, Brad Pitt (MONEYBALL)

Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain (THE HELP), Octavia Spencer, Berenice Bejo

Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks, Christopher Plummer, Kenneth Brannagh

After that folks, your guess is as good as mine.

The full list of DGA and WGA nominees are below, and if you are out to make any nomination guesses between now and the 24th, I must stress again – pay no attention to the circus that is The Golden Globes!

Directors Guild of America Nominees
Woody Allen – MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
David Fincher – THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Michael Hazanavicius – THE ARTIST
Alexander Payne – THE DESCENDANTS
Martin Scorsese – HUGO

Writers Guild of America Nominees
Original Screenplay:
50/50
BRIDESMAIDS
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
WIN WIN
YOUNG ADULT

Adapted Screenplay:
THE DESCENDANTS
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
THE HELP
HUGO
MONEYBALL

9 Replies to “On the Road to Find Out (Awards Talk pt. 4)”

    1. What you’re feeling is suspected by many (myself included) as the reason people don’t care about The Oscars as much any more. Because it falls pretty much at the end of Awards Season – after other such shows like The American Music Awards, The People’s Choice Awards, The Grammy’s, The SAG Awards, The Golden Globe Awards, etc, etc – there’s such thing as “awards fatigue”. So you’re not alone.

      Look at the bright side – at least this year there’s an actual question about who could take home the hardware…as opposed to the last few years where it’s all been a done deal by nomination morning.

  3. This year’s darling nomination could also very likely be the winner. My money is on “The Artist” to win. There will be nine total nominations this year: The other lock noms:

    Descendants
    Midnight in Paris
    Hugo
    The Help
    Moneyball
    Tree of Life
    Tinker Tailor
    Dragon Tattoo

    Outside shots:
    MMMM
    Young Adult
    Bridesmaids
    ROTPOTA
    Drive

    1. I was thinking about this last night and couldn’t help but smile over one thing – for the first time in a while, I actually don’t have the foggiest clue what could/will win Best Picture. This could all change in the next week as the guilds start to hand out their actual hardware, as a consensus would take all mystery out the game, but at the moment I’m in the dark.

      On the one hand, I’m loathe to bet against The Weinsteins lately…on another hand there seems to be a growing ARTIST backlash…then there’s the way DRAGON TATTOO seems to have caught people’s interest lately…or of course HUGO and the way it honours the past. It’s anybody’s ballgame right now, which ought to make for an interesting six weeks.

      Oh, and as for your all-star point, d’you think show producers aren’t creaming themselves over the possibility of having Clooney, Pitt, and DiCaprio all attending with Best Actor possibilities?

  4. Funnier is the possibility of an all-star director nomination line-up. I doubt it will go this way, but it’s possible:

    Eastwood
    Malick
    Scorsese
    Speilberg
    Allen

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